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Probability Fallacies
Coincidences: When the Impossible Becomes Inevitable
Introduction (1:43)
The Basic Fallacy (8:16)
Borel's Law: Understanding Impossible Events (4:03)
How to Create the Illusion of Miraculous Predictive Power (8:37)
The Birthday Problem, Lottery Coincidences and the Power of Very Large Numbers (9:18)
The Gambler's Fallacy: Bias, Randomness and the Illusion of Control
Introduction (2:44)
The Basic Fallacy (5:25)
Fairness, Bias and Independence (9:16)
How Can You Tell Whether a Chance Setup is Unfair? (6:08)
The Physics of Coin Tosses (13:30)
Casino Games: Why the House Always Wins (16:35)
Cognitive Factors and the Psychology of Gambling (15:28)
Small Sample Fallacies: Looking for Causes of Extreme Cases
The Small Sample Fallacy: Looking for Causes of Statistical Artifacts (10:24)
How Can You Tell Whether a Chance Setup is Unfair?
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